El barometer published by the Andalusian Studies Centre Foundation (Centra) On April 23, 2025, draw a overwhelming scenario in Andalusian politics: The focused and moderate project of the Popular Party of Andalusia, led by Juanma Moreno, is consolidating with a solid majority absolute, while The Andalusian PSOE faces its worst result ever under the direction of María Jesús Montero.
CENTRAL estimates that the PP would achieve between 57 and 59 seats in the Andalusian Parliament, with 42,2% of the votes, which means a 19,2 point advantage over the PSOE-A, which would barely reach between 25 and 28 seats with 23% electoral support.
This collapse of Andalusian socialism is explained, according to analysts, by the confrontational strategy adopted by Montero since becoming General Secretary of the PSOE-A. Her constant rhetoric of insults against Andalusia and her staunch defense of Pedro Sánchez's policies have been poorly received by a citizenry that values stability, loyal autonomy, and Juanma Moreno's management model.
The CENTRA survey confirms that There is no "Montero effect" positive; on the contrary, his leadership accentuates the PSOE's disconnection with the Andalusian electorate.
Just three months after replacing Juan Espadas as leader of the Andalusian Socialists, María Jesús Montero is already facing a psychological barrier: she could even fall short of 30 deputies. which his predecessor won in the June 2022 elections, marking a historic low for the PSOE-A in the community it governed for 37 years.
Juanma Moreno, for his part, is the best-known leader (87,4%) and the only one who obtains an average approval rating (5,51 points), versus 3,85 that Montero records.
The survey, based on 3.600 interviews conducted between March 17 and April 3, It confirms that the government model promoted by Juanma Moreno enjoys majority confidence.His commitment to a focused project, free from confrontation and focused on economic and social stability, has resonated with Andalusians.
Andalusians believe that the PP is the party that best addresses their problems.
CENTRA detects that a 24,8% of those surveyed consider that the Andalusian PP is the party that can best respond to the community's problems, compared to 15,6% who trust the PSOE.
The Andalusian president's leadership is also becoming a key figure for a large portion of the electorate disenchanted with national politics, especially following central government decisions such as debt forgiveness for certain autonomous communities or the lack of reforms to regional financing, which were overwhelmingly rejected in Andalusia.
Andalusians trust in @JuanMa_Moreno and mostly support his project.
The PSOE would obtain its worst result ever with María Jesús Montero.
We continue! pic.twitter.com/vqqCtQYNEZ
– PP of Andalusia (@ppandaluz) April 23, 2025
CENTRA reflects the need for fair funding for Andalusia
56,2% of Andalusians believe reforming regional financing is a priority over debt forgiveness, a position supported by Juanma Moreno's government.
At the same time, 49,9% consider it "very negative for Andalusia" that the central government is forgiving debt to other autonomous regions, which reinforces the Andalusian PP's discourse of defending the general interest and territorial equity.
In the economic context, unemployment remains citizens' biggest concern (43,3%), followed by healthcare (10,9%) and housing (8,5%). Faced with these challenges, Andalusians identify Juanma Moreno's administration as the most capable of offering solutions.
The Andalusian PP's moderate, centrist model not only resists, but is also growing stronger.
Unlike the loss of support of the PSOE (-1,1%) and Adelante Andalucía (-0,8%), the Popular Party barely lost ground (-0,9%) and remains clearly above the threshold of an absolute majority (55 deputies), while Vox, Por Andalucía/Sumar and Adelante remain with stable representation, with no real possibility of altering the balance.
The Andalusian Government's strategy, focused on effective management and social consensus, prevails over the confrontational model. promoted by Montero and Pedro Sánchez's Executive.
The lack of a solvent alternative on the part of the PSOE-A, combined with a leadership that offends more than it convinces, paves the way for Juanma Moreno to continue leading the Andalusian government with broad and sustained support.
The "Montero and Sánchez defect" is the consequence of governing by harming Andalusia.https://t.co/ogLXBigYaI pic.twitter.com/V8G68oBMXc
– Antonio Repullo Milla (@arepullomilla) April 23, 2025
