Trump's new tariffs once again place Andalusia under a direct threat to key sectors of its export economy. The Governing Council has analyzed the impact of these protectionist measures adopted by the US Administration, concluding that although the direct impact will be limited overall, it will be concentrated on key products such as olive oil, petroleum refining, natural stone, and the aeronautical industry.
In 2024, Andalusia exported products to the United States worth 3.138 billion euros., which represents 7,8% of the total exported by the community (40.173 million). Although this figure is lower than Andalusian exports to European countries such as Germany (11,5%), France (10,3%), Italy (9,3%) or Portugal (8,9%), the dependence of certain sectors on the US market means that the impact of the Trump tariffs should not be underestimated.
Olive oil and refining are the most exposed to Trump's tariffs.
Almost 64% of Andalusian exports to the United States are concentrated in five products: olive oil (806 million), refined petroleum products (725 million), natural stone (309 million), olives (164 million), and aeronautical components (137 million). These sectors are therefore the most exposed to the consequences of this tariff policy.
Olive oil, the symbol of the Andalusian countryside and an economic driving force in provinces such as Jaén, Seville, and Córdoba, is at the center of the target. Animal or vegetable fats and oils represented 1.007 million euros in exports to the US, equivalent to 32,1% of the total. This is followed by fuels (727 million, 23,2%) and stone products (315 million, 10,1%), with artificial stone being the most prominent.
Also noteworthy are the exports of Machines, electrical appliances (177 million, 5,6%), prepared vegetables, especially olives (175 million, 5,6%), and aircraft and their parts (138 million, 4,4%). Together, these seven products represent 83,5% of the total exported from Andalusia to the United States.
The Andalusian Government notes a “limited but significant” impact
The Government of Juanma Moreno has taken note of the analysis that points to a Highly focused sectoral impact, but of great significance in strategic industries, due to Trump tariffsAlthough Andalusian exports are significantly geographically diversified, the high concentration of sectors in the US market means that the measures have a direct impact on certain value chains.
"We are facing a high-risk phenomenon for very specific sectors that generate employment, innovation, and territorial development," explains the Andalusian government.
The OECD expects Trump's measures to hurt the US more than Europe.
According to the OECD, the imposition of bilateral tariffs of 10% This would cause a 0,3% drop in global GDP in the third year, with an average rise in inflation of 0,4%. But the most profound effects would be felt in the United States, with a 0,7% contraction in GDP and an increase in inflation of up to 0,7 percentage points annually. Goldman Sachs has already raised the probability of a US recession to 35%.
Therefore, the Trump tariffs could end up harming the US economy more than the European one. Spain, and Andalusia in particular, have relatively less exposure to the US market compared to other EU partners such as Germany, Italy, and France.
A new, more fragmented and less favorable trade order
The tariff escalation driven by the Trump tariffs is causing Uncertainty, volatility, and a reconfiguration of global value chains, which makes long-term planning difficult for exporting companies. Protectionism affects both imports and exports, slowing economic growth and pushing up prices.
In this context, the European Commission has responded firmly and has raised the possibility of reciprocal tariffs, while exploring diplomatic avenues to avoid a larger trade conflict. The EU is preparing to defend its strategic sectors, not ruling out similar measures if pressure from Washington persists.
Andalusia: Export Resilience in an Uncertain Environment
Despite the challenges, Andalusia continues to stand out for its strength in the foreign sector, with a business base that has demonstrated its ability to adapt. The Andalusian Government emphasizes that the region will continue supporting the most vulnerable sectors, promoting market diversification, industrial modernization, and the international positioning of value-added products.
The Andalusian strategy is to reduce dependence on markets vulnerable to geopolitical instability., like the American one, and to strengthen its presence in Asia, Africa and Latin America, where new opportunities are opening up for agri-food, technological and renewable energy products.
